Comments on: Movie Box Office: Real Betting Is On the Way

By: Chris

Chris — Wed, 03 Mar 2010 18:17:04 +0000

There won’t be enough liquidity in this market for producers to bet big enough against it to offset the cost of production with little box office receipts and still make a huge profit. As long as large block trades are published where anyone can see any potential funny business going on by a large institution, then it’s fair. Let the buyer beware. Don’t like it, don’t participate. Besides, large financial institutions do that now with publicly traded companies. They can short a stock into the ground and go on CNBC spreading negative sentiment until the company blows up and Americans lose jobs over it. How is CX any worse than that?

By: David

David — Fri, 26 Feb 2010 19:16:21 +0000

Was Enron that long ago?!

The illusion of value is laughably easy to create and the billions of dollars that inevitably flow into these sinkholes does nothing to curtail the foolish enthusiasm for risk with little real prospect of reward.

It’s so much easier and lucrative to rob people this way than with a gun in an alley.

David Says:
February 24th, 2010 at 1:19 am

Rob,

Something has to have value first before you can make money betting against it (shorting it, etc.).

By: Dan

Dan — Thu, 25 Feb 2010 17:02:54 +0000

Good point Rob, but imagine how hilarious it will be when reality immitates art, ie, “The Producers”.

By: Steven

Steven — Wed, 24 Feb 2010 13:27:56 +0000

I guess this gives a whole new meaning to “The Producers”…

By: Bob

Bob — Wed, 24 Feb 2010 12:17:28 +0000

You can bet on it!

By: rrr

rrr — Wed, 24 Feb 2010 11:29:40 +0000

don’t think the money will be that good to sabo your own movie lolz

By: jng92wg7vw2q

jng92wg7vw2q — Wed, 24 Feb 2010 10:00:16 +0000

The insiders can’t make money unless ordinary fools play the game too. Will it be regulated by the SEC?

By: David

David — Wed, 24 Feb 2010 09:19:08 +0000

Rob,

Something has to have value first before you can make money betting against it (shorting it, etc.).

It’s pretty difficult to fool traders and investors who have money on the line and the wisdom of a free market overall sorting things out.

I could see a positive effect in it giving Hollywood an incentive to make movies that are proven money-makers such as more family-oriented or G-rated films. Right now Hollywood is ideological and would actually rather lose money making a movie with left-wing dogma.

By: leonard

leonard — Wed, 24 Feb 2010 08:52:51 +0000

doesn’t anyone remember the plot of gene wilder’s wonderful production of “The Producers”?

a producer oversubscribes his plays to investors by more than 100%. he then finds the crappiest scripts and actors available with the hope that the play fails.

then the producer does not need to account to his investors who’ve lost everything due to the play’s failure.

unscrupulous hollywood producers could, with the cantor plan do somewhat similarly but with a twist: hype up a potential movie as the greatest film ever; hire the biggest names (with escape clauses) and then do everything to kill or damage the production.

all that’s left to do is to buy puts (bet against the film) and then make more than they would have made, bottom-line, had the production even been a success.

what fun and, instead of being hostage to a multi-year production, these smarmy producers could be in and out within a few months ready to take on their next big thing.

soon there’ll really be no new productions as it would be much more profitable to bollix up the real ones. it’ll be the “faked” projects squeezing out the real ones. kind of like a gresham’s law on coinage (debased coins drive out the real silver and gold coins–like in america) only for films.

By: John

John — Wed, 24 Feb 2010 07:22:54 +0000

Riiiight, Rob. Like that’s really going to happen. Studio execs, whose entire careers are gambling on the success of their next film, which in itself is a tremendous gamble, are going to bet against it.

You’re too clever by half.